In
1970, Alvin Toffler wrote a book called Future Shock.
The book itself shocked numerous readers.
Toffler presented clear evidence of how the speed of change had
increased drastically as human progress pushed forward.
One
couldn't help being impressed by Toffler's observation that more
change has taken place in the past 2000 years than in the 200,000
years before that, and that more changes have occurred in the last 200
years than in either the previous 2000 years or 200,000 years.
What's
shocking to the reader about this is the realization that we no longer
have a generation for our children to adapt to change.
Speed itself compels a change in the rate of decision-making
and, as Toffler says, "all decision systems have limits as to how
fast they can make complex decisions."
Though
Alvin Toffler was by no means the first person with an interest in
futuristic thinking, he was the first modern writer to make people
aware of the importance of future studies.
Futurist
Michael
Findlay offered an interesting story about people missing Toffler's
ideas: "At a dinner
party held for the Chinese ambassador in the late 1970s, Toffler found
himself seated with the top executives from NBC and RCA. Since it
would be unlike him not to take advantage of such access, he asked
them how broadcasting would be different five years hence. Both smiled
languidly and assured Toffler there would be no major changes.
"They,
like everyone else who would lose their jobs in the years ahead for
not seeing the approaching third wave, saw a future of fine tuning and
incremental adjustments. Amidst the tremendous upheaval of our
times, they were asleep at the wheel and proud of it."
For
more information about Toffler's futuristic thinking, along with
links, see the page devoted to him on TechTV’s Big
Thinkers. Two
of those links, Futurist.com
and The World Future Society were
inspired by Toffler’s ideas and writing.
The World Future Society makes a number of thought-provoking forecasts.
"You
can analyze the past but you have to design the future," wrote
Edward de Bono, futurist and expert on Lateral Thinking.
De Bono observed "keeping your balance on a surfboard is a
matter of continuous adjustment. There is no one stance that makes
subsequent adjustment unnecessary”"
The
same is true of the need for creative thinking to adapt to
change. We can anticipate some of the effects of change.
We can set up structures to cope better with change. All this
requires thinking, as does the response to unforeseen difficulties
that arise.
We
need to be ready to adapt to situations like: ‘How are we going to
cope with this new competitive threat’?
‘Retirement is a big change. We have to adjust to
it’. ‘Being out of a
job is a big change. We have to think about how we are going to
cope’. ‘This back injury means that I am going to have to
learn a new job’. ‘The huge importation of cheap toys from
China has hit us very hard’. ‘The market has changed.
There are no longer lots of small outlets, only a few big outlets, and
if you cannot get into these you are finished. So they can
squeeze you on margins’.
See de Bono’s Passages
of the Day for more of de Bono’s wisdom about thinking for the
future.
Summerhill
School is unique. It’s a progressive, co-educational,
residential school, founded by A. S. Neill in 1921; in his own words,
it is a ‘free school’. This doesn’t mean that it’s state
funded. The freedom Neill was referring to was the personal freedom of
the children in his charge. Summerhill is first and foremost a
place where children can be free.
Visitors
usually single out two features of the school as being particularly
unusual. The first is that all lessons are optional. A school that
compelled its pupils to go to lessons would be, at best, a travesty of
freedom.
Many
people suppose that no children would ever go to lessons if they were
not forced to. At
Summerhill, it is rare for a child to attend no lessons at
all--at least, after the initial shock of freedom has worn off.
But when it does happen, no pressure is applied to the child to
start going to lessons.
Neill
was an educational visionary whose time has still not arrived since
his futuristic approach to learning hasn’t spread far.
Many of Neill’s ideas about learning at Summerhill will
undoubtedly be incorporated into education’s future.
More about Summerhill
and Neill can be found at their Web site.
Another
futurist, R. Buckminster Fuller is best known for creating the
Geodesic Dome. Fuller has
undeniably been one of the key innovators in the 20th century. He is
known as a philosopher, thinker, visionary, inventor, architect,
engineer, mathematician, poet, cosmologist, and more.
Buckminster
Fuller was probably one of the first futurists and global thinkers. He
coined the term ‘Spaceship Earth’, and his work has inspired and
paved the way for many who came after him.
An
example of Fuller’s future thought, which still hasn't registered in
many minds, is his discussion of energy.
He writes of the various renewable sources of energy and how
energy can be shared:
| We
now have the know-how to connect together all the world's electrical
generating plants. That one project would almost double the
amount of energy available in the world because right now most
generating plants run at about half capacity & use the other half
for peak demand only. By interconnecting they could all swap
power (especially between the light & dark sides of the earth) and
therefore be run at almost peak capacity most of the time--without
building any new generating plants. |
According
to Fuller, there’s no energy shortage.
There’s just a shortage of awareness of what is now
possible. He calls the crisis “a crisis of ignorance”!
Visit Chris Fearnley's list of Buckminster
Fuller References.
See
Buckminster Fuller's "Grand
Strategy for Solving Global Problems.”
Arthur
C. Clark, who co-authored Space Odyssey 2001, provided one of
the best-known examples of fictional future thought.
Much of science fiction has made attempts at future thinking,
though most of it seems improbable if not impossible.
Clark’s HAL intelligence, planetary bases and long
hibernation all fit in the realm of probable futures, while artificial
intelligence is possible. Close
encounters with aliens, however, remain in the realm of fantasy.
Clarke
had three rules of thumb: 1) when a distinguished and elderly
scientist says something is possible, he is almost certainly correct;
when he says something is impossible he is very probably wrong;
2) the only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to
venture a little past them; 3) any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from magic.
An unauthorized Arthur
C. Clark home page has some valuable biographical information
along with a bibliography of his books and films.
Utopias
have figured among the literature of futurist thinking.
In 1516 Sir Thomas More wrote his famous Utopia.
In the following centuries there have been frequent visions of
utopias (ideal societies of the future) as well as distopias (visions
of evil societies, like that of George Orwell in 1984).
The
Chronicle of the Future
has mapped a path from the already familiar landscape of life in 2000
through to the uncharted territories of 2050. Cathy Galvin
edited the series, guided by scientists and experts, for the Sunday
Times.
For
an authoritative analysis of futures in areas that concern us today,
read the studies by Stanford Professor Emeritus John McCarthy on Progress
and Sustainability. Professor McCarthy discusses the futures of energy, population,
food, fresh water, forests and wood supplies, biodiversity and the
opportunities to make progress sustainable.
With
the knowledge that our actions can endanger the well being of future
generations, humanity faces an unprecedented challenge to anticipate
the unfolding crises, envision alternative futures and make
appropriate choices. The question of the future, once a matter for
dreamers and philosophers, has moved to the center of the agendas for
both social development and science.
Inventor and founder of Delco, Charles Kettering, turned the obvious into
a witty turn of phrase when he wrote, "We must look forward to the future as that is where most of us will spend the rest of our
lives”"
