How often have you tried to predict the future? When you
have, have you saved your prediction and then looked back to see how accurate you were? Experience tells me that most
people like to forget the futuristic looks they had that turned out to be wrong.
In 1998, I wrote an article called “Getting Ready for Tomorrow.” It predicted the future and future possibilities
for the usefulness of the Internet. Today (May 10, 2005), I’m going to look
back at those predictions and try to see how far we’ve come on the Information Superhighway.
First, I mentioned that “most people who have access to computers know that modern technology has blessed or
bedeviled our lives with drastic changes, especially in areas affected by the ‘information superhighway’ of computer
networks. Few realize the full extent of the vast transformation that will affect our lives in a future already
fast bearing down on us.”
The Internet affects a lot more people than it did six years ago. The number of computer users has increased dramatically
in the developed and developing countries. Over half a billion people now have
Internet
access. Seven years ago, the number of users amounted to a mere 50
million.
The distance, however, between the haves and have-nots in backward parts of the world has also increased. This is
particularly noticeable in parts of South America, much of Africa and Northeast Asia.
Following are the predictions and the outcomes:
PREDICTION: Major changes in education
“Get ready for a major shift of much of the learning process
from today's schools and universities to the home. The present lecture system is due for a major upgrade. Modern
technology makes it possible for the best lecturers in the world to make learning exciting far beyond their lecture
halls. Schools with limited budgets will no longer have to struggle with inadequate libraries. Some of the best
libraries in the world will be instantly available worldwide. Study and discussion forums will be accessed from the comfort
of home at times convenient for the learner.”
OUTCOME: Very little beside minor changes have happened here. Though schools have bought computers and taught students to
use them, that’s about it. Boring lecturers haven’t been made obsolete (though they should have by now). Profiteering
copyright holders still constrain library holdings. While study and discussion forums exist, most have nothing to do
with formal education. A lot of learning has shifted to the home in developed countries. That learning is independent
and, for the most part, lacks guidance.
PREDICTION: Extensive medical and health news
“Have you wondered about your local doctor’s diagnosis or the
drugs prescribed for you? Over 10,000 medical sites are now available on the World Wide Web; and medical experts are
rating them. Almost instant information is available on the whole range of known medical conditions and medications.
Increasingly physicians and patients will use the Internet to get the latest medical information. The entire medical
profession will have to keep pace with the information available to patients.”
OUTCOME: The Medical Web has improved. Members of the medical profession have done a great deal to upgrade the
quality of medical information available on the Web. Legitimate practitioners have also increased the availability
of alternative health practices that pharmaceutical companies have often blocked in the open market. Unfortunately, not
enough medical practitioners have kept pace with the information available to patients, often creating credibility
gaps in doctor-patient relationships.
PREDICTION: Virtual shopping
“Tomorrow will see the already numerous shopping sites increase by the thousands, making on-line shopping as common
as going to shopping centers today. Virtual shopping is already easier, faster and just as safe as mail order buying.
Everything from clothing, flowers, jewelry, food, books, music tapes and CD’s, cameras, computers and electronic
equipment to cars gets added to Internet sites daily.”
OUTCOME: Online shopping has increased dramatically in a number of places like the USA, the UK and most European
countries. The rest of the world lags behind for various reasons.
Elsewhere, you can’t shop at more than one or two local outlets online.
International companies haven’t even established this facility. In many places, a majority of
people either don’t have credit cards or they’re afraid to use them on the Internet.
PREDICTION: On-line banking and securities trading
“A number of major banks already offer on-line banking facilities providing savings and electronic checking accounts
as well as credit facilities on the Internet. Most banks will surely follow suit to attract customers who want to
avoid waiting in lines as well as the bother of writing and posting checks that can get lost in the mails. Several
securities brokers already have trading sites accessible from home computers, making it possible to buy and sell stocks and
bonds and almost all tradable securities from your desktop PC.”
OUTCOME:
In many places, the most that local banks have done is to create websites. They still haven’t made online banking facilities
available. In order to make a deposit, pay a bill or get a draft, you still have to drive to the bank, wait in line and
drive back home. Some banks connect by computer with their branches and home offices, but they haven’t connected
with their customers. Online trading is another facility used almost exclusively in the West and Southeast Asia.
PREDICTION: Travel and hotel information and reservations
“Want to take a cruise or get airline tickets at discount prices? Getting detailed travel information and making
reservations are already available services on the World Wide Web. One can view worldwide maps of locations being
considered as travel destinations. Hotels, with many including special price discounts, offer instant reservation
services through the Internet.”
OUTCOME: As recently as five years ago, it was possible to list the major online travel agencies on a single printed
page. Now, 500 million pages are devoted to travel in Google along with long lists of travel organizations in Internet
directories. All major airlines, hotels, cruise ship lines and rental car agencies have online booking facilities.
Travel agencies seem to stay in business by getting discounts from the carriers and passing part of those on to their
clients.
PREDICTION: Incredible research facilities
“Interested in exploring the classics? They’re already at
hand. Major literary works through the 19th century can be accessed via your home computer. When publishers can sort out
copyright problems and royalties to authors, modern works will also be available. One can now search the best
dictionaries and encyclopedias at no cost other than the time spent on-line. With more than 3,000 new Web sites being added
daily, information on almost any subject can be found, or soon will be, through the Internet. Computers are already
used in many research programs to analyze and report on collected data.”
OUTCOME: Research facilities on the Internet have been steadily increasing by a magnitude almost too huge to keep up
with. Unfortunately, as I've already mentioned, publishers haven’t done much, if anything, about sorting out copyright
problems, restricting access to modern publications. The best news is that magazines and news media of all types,
including alternative news sources, have generally made their publications available and free online. Some charge small
fees for material in their archives. With the recent developments in media players and broadband service, an
increasing number of video recordings will become available for viewing and download.
PREDICTION: Novel interactive entertainment
“Those interested in playing games with others around the
world, following sports activities, chatting with friends or making new ones can do so from home or from an Internet café.
You can already scan photos or take them with a digital camera and send them directly to someone instantly; and with
a camcorder attached to your computer, you can even see the person you're talking with.”
OUTCOME: As one might expect, with the popularity of online games, especially with the younger generation (though not
exclusively), the market for them has increased tremendously. Sharing photos online has flourished. Camcorders haven’t
found the interest predicted, except for those appealing to voyeurs. Perhaps most people don’t want to be seen at their
computers.
PREDICTION: Instant mail service
“The days of writing a letter and waiting for a month or more for a response from a friend, a loved-one in a distant land,
or a business contact are over. With email, an instant worldwide message service provides ease of communication as
well as great savings on long-distance phone bills. Easy, interactive messages are now possible because you can use a
computer to insert comments in any part of the messages you receive.”
OUTCOME: Email has exploded into the most frequently used facility of the Internet. That has unfortunately brought
with it a plague of unwelcome spam from unsavory characters trying to sell everything from Viagra, Rolex watches, male
organ enlargement and pornography to moneymaking scams. Viruses and worms have also taken to the email airwaves,
causing an untold amount of damage to a host of personal computers.
PREDICTION: Increased business transactions
“Much business is already transacted via the Internet and with the increased speed of communication that will continue
to develop dramatically. Everything from viewing company products to ordering, invoicing and paying via the Net will
be part of worldwide commerce. A great deal of company information, sales and service facilities can be accessed now
and business is destined to make giant leaps as Internet trading flourishes.”
OUTCOME: Just as games have taken hold of the young, the potential for online business has captivated entrepreneurs
wherever the Internet and the World Wide Web have marketing potential. Though many of the early, over-priced
dot-coms that wanted to make a killing with business on the Web failed
their investors, business use has continued to expand in giant leaps. Major online businesses like Amazon and E-bay
have taken off non-stop.
PREDICTION: Careers and jobs
“People have already started using the Internet to search for
and apply for jobs. Sample CV's are easy to find on the Net and there are dozens of career sites with job listings all
over the world. Thousands of colleges and universities also have an on-line presence to be checked out by potential
applicants.”
OUTCOME: Job-hunting online hasn’t increased as much as had been expected. People still turn to the classified ads in
local newspapers and periodicals. Many of the existing online career services seem to appeal to those who want to or
are willing to relocate. A few career services online, like Monster, seem to have outgrown most rivals.
Seven years ago, I wrote: “We're driving down the information superhighway at break-neck speed, with a few of us hoping
that we'll survive what Alvin Toffler called ‘Future Shock.’
Becoming aware of what's happening in the world of high technology seems to be an essential step in preparing our
survival kits.”
We’ve survived without any apparent effects of ‘future shock,’ which only reveals how adaptable we’ve been, allowing
for a few exceptions. The exceptions are where people’s livelihoods or profits have seemed threatened by the
Information Superhighway. This has been the case with education, music and modern book
publications.
Where it hasn’t seemed profitable, as with local banking and shopping, to go online, the commercial possibilities haven’t
yet been realized.
We’ll have to wait for another tomorrow to realize the greatest potential for the Internet.
